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Fu Peng
2026-08-24 14:20:48

Fu Peng says AI trade has flipped as markets punish capital burn instead of rewarding expansion

Fu Peng said the market is now in a vacuum period where the thesis of a complete and viable AI commercial loop has yet to be proven or disproven, and that shift is changing how investors price companies. In his view, the earlier enthusiasm that rewarded heavy spending in the AI arms race has cooled, giving way to a framework that penalizes aggressive capital consumption. He pointed to the U.S. market’s punishment of Alphabet after free cash flow turned negative and the rotation toward Apple as a clear example of that change, adding that a similar pattern is now playing out among major Chinese internet companies. Fu said Alibaba’s capital expenditures surged this quarter, leading to continued net free cash flow outflows. If large AI computing and infrastructure spending cannot quickly produce profits on a comparable scale, he argued, the burden falls on offshore cash and raises fresh doubts about marginal returns on capital. Against a market that is already unconvinced about a full AI profit loop, he said that announcing large placements or convertible bond financing amounts to further shareholder dilution. Fu also cited Michael Burry’s reduction or exit from Alibaba and heavier positioning in JD.com as reflecting the same investor preference for companies with more restrained balance-sheet expansion, less pressure on free cash flow, and clearer buyback execution.

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Fu Peng says AI trade has flipped as markets punish capital burn instead of rewarding expansion
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